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Thimerosal...
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prescott
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Joined: 21 Apr 2002
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Location: Outside your window

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 2:55 pm    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Well, that's completely different. I think the confusion on your standpoint may have come from the article in the OP being heavily about thimerosal being a big coverup by the FDA and Public Health.

I have no doubt pharma companies squash cures to allow "symptom treatment" drugs to continue. Although I would imagine it would be something like chronic heartburn, not cancer or AIDS. There would most certainly be whistleblowers if that were the case...
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ExCareerGal
Seen Better Days


Joined: 13 Sep 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Memphis, TN

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 7:13 pm    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

I have spent a fair amount of time researching this issue and my two favorite links are below:
http://www.quackwatch.org/03HealthPromotion/immu/autism.html
http://www.cdc.gov/nip/vacsafe/concerns/autism/default.htm
Basically I agree with Jessica that there is an amazing amount of misinformation and the ignorance on this subject is scary.

But I want to correct one thing that several of you keep saying. Research do not PROVE anything. All studies do is give evidence one way or another over groups of people. If you read the CDC information, they clearly say that there is no evidence of a causal link between vaccinations or autism. But there is no way to prove it one way or another. All studies ever give you is evidence of how some intervention affected a group of people- but how any treatment affects an person (in a clinical sense) is completely individual.

For example, there may be a drug that cures a disease in 70% of the population. But you do not know if you are in the 30% not helped or 70% group that is helped until you try it. It is the same with vaccines. There is a very, VERY small percentage of the population that can be harmed by a vaccine - but the odds of getting hurt by the disease the vaccine prevents is so much higher that it is usually worth the risk. But do not kid yourself, there is always a small but real risk since nothing is proven for you or your kids until you try it.

I chose to vaccinate my children, but I researched it carefully first. A lot of parents ask me about this issue and I explain it to them as I did above. Most choose to vaccinate unless there is a family history of bad reactions to that specific vaccine.

The main problem with the MMR and Autism is they both occur around the same time. It is very common for people to think events that occur at the same time are causally linked. But sometimes they just happen!
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prescott
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Joined: 21 Apr 2002
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 8:43 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

ExCareerGal wrote:
But I want to correct one thing that several of you keep saying. Research do not PROVE anything.


I think this is OT and just arguing semantics. Most definitions of the word "proof" do not acknowledge absolutes -- the limits of the human mind vs. the vastness of the natural universe precludes this. As I mentioned before, science is an organic thing that changes and evolves as information is gathered and knowledge gained; that's the beauty of it as compared to a set in stone doctrine.

As such, I think the word "prove" in the scientific sense merely means a preponderance of evidence that clearly leads to validity of a theory as fact. I suppose in the most strictest of sense, the theory of gravity has not been 100% proven, but most sane people would not doubt it is correct.........
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Petulant Pixie
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Joined: 22 Apr 2002
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Location: flyover country

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 9:08 pm    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Quote:
As such, I think the word "prove" in the scientific sense merely means a preponderance of evidence that clearly leads to validity of a theory as fact.


Actually, statiscially, you can "prove" something scientifically. In psychology, when we did experiements involving causation, the P value had to be <.005

Really, I'm not uneducated in scientific deisgn and interpretation. I'd say that with my education and with my handy-dandy scientist husband available, I'm a little more knowledgable on this stuff than most on the board! I agree that with the science we have available, there is nothing to link thimersol with autism. But, that doesn't mean there isn't a link and it just hasn't been proven yet. There's just still a lot of smoke.
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ExCareerGal
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Joined: 13 Sep 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Memphis, TN

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 9:50 pm    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

PP your example of a p value at .05 that there is 5% error actually supports my point that there is error in all science. The best one can do is find statistical significance but no scientist ever calls that proof.

Actually I am not off-topic Prescott. Your example was of a theory (and your definition is correct). I am talking about research. The examples here are not trying to prove a theory- but if an intervention works or not or causes harm in this case.

My point is that even if there is evidence of a vaccine causing 99% of an effect on a population, that may not be what happens to you (ie: you could be in the 1%). And as PP mentioned, there is even error in that measure (usually measured in confidence intervals). It is always playing the odds to a certain extent. But with vaccine research the odds definitely support going with them rather than avoiding them (barring specific circumstances).
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Jessica
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Joined: 20 Apr 2002
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Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 10:10 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Petulant Pixie wrote:
I'd say that with my education and with my handy-dandy scientist husband available, I'm a little more knowledgable on this stuff than most on the board!


Petulant Pixie wrote:
I agree that with the science we have available, there is nothing to link thimersol with autism. But, that doesn't mean there isn't a link and it just hasn't been proven yet.


Those two concepts are a contradiction given that no reputable scientist believes there is a link. It isn't about his/her opinion, but rather the evidence. Enough evidence shows that there is no causal link. If it doesn't exist, you cannot make it exist by willing it to be so. It has to exist to the point where it's significant enough to be able to make that link, and there isn't. Where's the smoke??

As I've said over and over, austism should be drastically dropping and from what I understand, that is not the case, although Australia claims that the disorder is way over-diagnosed, so a decrease may again come from a greater understanding of the disorder. I mean, Graham has ASD in his record and I'm still not convinced he has it. The doctor had to give him a diagnosis in order for him to receive the therapy he needed, so that's what he wrote down. If he does have it, it's an anomaly in it's diagnosis since his academic IQ is well beyond Kindergarten level (he is now teaching himself how to read and navigating the DVR to shows that teach him foreign languages and he is in love with trapazoids, pentagons and octagons and all shapes and numbers) and he has yet to turn 3. He has some sensory issues though, much of which he is growing out of (and some are very stubborn and linger on), so does that mean he has ASD?? We don't know yet (my guess is no), but he still has that diagnosis in his record. Our big dilema is whether we send him to the Einstein academy or the Special Needs school run by the state. It seems that his therapist have very little experience with his intellectual abilities coupled with his developmental and sensory delays.

Anyway, I also found this (from msnbc) that gave some very valid reasons for the increase of autism:

"Diagnostic criteria changed dramatically in 1987, broadening the number of people who could be considered to have ASDs (autistic spectrum disorders). In decades earlier, only those with severe autistic characteristics would be diagnosed with autism; others might have been categorized as mentally retarded, for example. So making comparisons across decades is difficult."

I'm not sure why people **NEED** to blame someone for this. Where does that come from?? I mean, I can wait my entire life for evidence to show that my Honda is giving me acne and that doesn't mean I'm on to something!

Getting back to the whole "cancer cure" thing, I'm glad you don't think it's some kind of global conspiracy. It's hard for me to accept that intelligent people actually believe that. Contrary to your beliefs however, I don't really think pharma companies hide cures (they did come up with a chicken pox vaccine, whereas future treatments might have been very lucrative). I can believe however, that pharma companies tell people not to waste their time searching for the cure for AIDS or the common cold because they wish to allocate their resources elsewhere, ie; where there's more money opportunity. I mean, you can live the rest of your life with AIDS right now, and a very normal life at that, with the meds on the market today. Sure, maybe if pharma companies put billions of dollars and resouces and 10 years into it, they could come up with a cure, but quite frankly, I don't know if I want them allocating every resource to that when there are tons of other medical problems that we need medications for. As long as we can live the rest of our lives with a disease, it depends on how many resources it would drain to find an ultimate cure, and if it's even possible.
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Jessica
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Joined: 20 Apr 2002
Posts: 4752
Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 10:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

ExCareerGal wrote:

My point is that even if there is evidence of a vaccine causing 99% of an effect on a population, that may not be what happens to you (ie: you could be in the 1%). And as PP mentioned, there is even error in that measure (usually measured in confidence intervals). It is always playing the odds to a certain extent. But with vaccine research the odds definitely support going with them rather than avoiding them (barring specific circumstances).


Sorry to butt in here, but I don't get what you're saying at all. First of all, we're not debating the safety of vaccines in general, we're debating whether or not thimerosal CAUSES autsim and so far, there has been no link. There is definitely proof of cause and effect, otherwise we would never be able to conclude that smoking causes lung cancer (yes, I know some people smoke and don't get lung cancer, but something like 80% do, which I believe the % indication for conclusive evidence) or that if you let go of an apple, it will drop and not remain suspended in mid-air.

Since there is not even a link to causation between thimerosal and autism, how would we even be able to ascertain a margin of error. 1% of 0 is still 0.
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ExCareerGal
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Joined: 13 Sep 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Memphis, TN

PostPosted: Fri Dec 30, 2005 11:40 pm    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

You are right Jessica. Here I was off topic. I was not discussing the ingredients of vaccines just the issue of having vaccines versus not vaccinating. Sorry- my fault for reading too quickly since we were out of town and I missed most of this discussion when it happened. Plus some posts just discussed vaccination. There is no evidence that any ingredient of vaccines signigficantly correllates with higher incidence of autism.

My apologies also for the semantic discussion too on the word "proof". The researcher in me was cringing a bit. But you have your facts fine.

Has your son been identified as having Asperger's syndrome? He sounds much higher functioning that the usual Autism diagnosis. Kudos to you for learning about what he can and cannot do without getting too bogged down in a diagnosis. I have worked with several kids with an assortment of problems and many who were diagnosd with ASD - some correctly some not. It is a hard call to make.
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prescott
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Joined: 21 Apr 2002
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 12:06 am    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Our son has not been specifically diagnosed. Which makes it all the more infuriating that he is being denied private health insurance. But that's a whole 'nother thread. Razz
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Jessica
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Joined: 20 Apr 2002
Posts: 4752
Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 8:37 am    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

ExCareerGal wrote:
You are right Jessica. Here I was off topic. I was not discussing the ingredients of vaccines just the issue of having vaccines versus not vaccinating. Sorry- my fault for reading too quickly since we were out of town and I missed most of this discussion when it happened. Plus some posts just discussed vaccination. There is no evidence that any ingredient of vaccines signigficantly correllates with higher incidence of autism.

My apologies also for the semantic discussion too on the word "proof". The researcher in me was cringing a bit. But you have your facts fine.


Hey, no worries. I was just trying to figure out where the heck you were coming from! I'm the worst person for reading through threads too quickly! I understand if you were speaking purely from a safety issue of vaccines themselves.

ExCareerGal wrote:
Has your son been identified as having Asperger's syndrome? He sounds much higher functioning that the usual Autism diagnosis. Kudos to you for learning about what he can and cannot do without getting too bogged down in a diagnosis. I have worked with several kids with an assortment of problems and many who were diagnosd with ASD - some correctly some not. It is a hard call to make.


Yeah, you can't just take a blood test and voila!

I personally suspect Asperger syndrome myself. I picked up a book at Barnes and Noble the other day called "The Parents Guide to AS" and I read the first paragraph about this boy named Josh who was articulate beyond his years (Graham didn't say a word until he was 18 months, but once he started, it was a windfall). It described Josh as loving science, math and taught himself how to read by age 3 and recited the alphabet at 18 months (when Graham started speaking, the alphabet was one of his first sounds, over and over and over and over again.) So I read on that Josh had many adult attributes, but could play with a toy for hours and hours and he only ate 5 different kinds of food, and he has Asperger syndrome.

My eyes started to swell with tears because that just sounded so much like my Graham. He does the same exact things over and over and over and over and never gets bored. I think this is why some of these children excel in school because they can think about a problem until the problem is solved.

Anyway, Grahmmy's big issue is sensory integration disorder, so it's just so hard to tell, so hard to know...

In two weeks, we are meeting with a panel of "experts" to evaluate him for the Federally funded pre-school for specail needs. I'm hoping they will be able to offer some additonal insight.

Now, I know you are in that field, special ed, right? What is your experience with high functioning autism? Graham seems like a "normal" kid when you first meet him and if you spend any time around him, you notice oddities. It's almost as if he will grow up to be extremely eccentric. That's what I think. My family really noticed it at Christmas time. He tends to want to be alone in groups and focus on certain things. Plus, he fell from a really high ladder stool and not a peep came out of him (which is normal for him) and I think my family was really freaked out by his lack of response. I just said, "Oh, that's Graham!"
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Jessica
Queen of Imperfection


Joined: 20 Apr 2002
Posts: 4752
Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 8:39 am    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

prescott wrote:
Our son has not been specifically diagnosed. Which makes it all the more infuriating that he is being denied private health insurance.


I don't know if I want to get him specifically diagnosed by the Autistic Research Center or anything, look how the doctor's record and Easter Seals records have come to haunt us!
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Petulant Pixie
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Joined: 22 Apr 2002
Posts: 4140
Location: flyover country

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 11:13 am    Post subject: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Yeah, Jess and Scott--I'd try to get that diagnosis removed, if at all possible. I'd find a doctor who understands your family's needs and get the diagnosis changed. Working with the psychiatrists in Texas, I *know* that's possible. Mental health diagnoses (even if they're really neurological diagnoses) aren't like strep throat or cancer, they aren't definitive--there are lots of things with "tendencies" and "traits" where a therapist could get the problem without the taboo word "Autism", "Schizophrenia", etc spelled out in the diagnosis. Doctors and therapists KNOW about the problem with insurance and really, most of them are willing to work with the family for the family's best interest.
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ExCareerGal
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Joined: 13 Sep 2005
Posts: 416
Location: Memphis, TN

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 1:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Jessica wrote:
Now, I know you are in that field, special ed, right? What is your experience with high functioning autism? Graham seems like a "normal" kid when you first meet him and if you spend any time around him, you notice oddities. It's almost as if he will grow up to be extremely eccentric. That's what I think. My family really noticed it at Christmas time. He tends to want to be alone in groups and focus on certain things. Plus, he fell from a really high ladder stool and not a peep came out of him (which is normal for him) and I think my family was really freaked out by his lack of response. I just said, "Oh, that's Graham!"


I am a Special Education professor. I an NOT an expert in ASD or early childhood special education though I have almost 30 years of experience as a special educator so there is not too much I have not worked with at one time or another. My area of expertise is more general dealing with kids with learning disabilities and inclusion issues. I do a fair amount with educational technology too.

You son sounds much more like Asperger's to me but I will leave formal diagnosis for experts and people who have met your child. he sounds like a great kid who is going to be fine- just a little different - I think your word eccentric is right on target. I think all people are eccentric to some extent so he just may be a little further along on that track than some. But like all kids with disabilities- they seem to have hidden gifts that enrich all of our lives who are fortunate enough to get to know them.

Good luck with all the assessments. If it gets confusing and you want an outside opinion to look at test results I am pretty good at translating them to English. I think you have my email.
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Jessica
Queen of Imperfection


Joined: 20 Apr 2002
Posts: 4752
Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 5:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

Petulant Pixie wrote:
Yeah, Jess and Scott--I'd try to get that diagnosis removed, if at all possible. I'd find a doctor who understands your family's needs and get the diagnosis changed.


I think it's too late. We're screwed. I did a lot of research on our state's regulations regarding private insurance and apparently there is none. The up-side for the general public in Illinois is that health insurance is relatively cheap, the down-side is that private insurance can do whatever the hell they want. Even if we could get the diagnosis changed, the insurance companies would say, "Too effing bad. It was there at one point, you're screwed." That's how they operate here because they go totally unregulated. Now, because he supposedly has a disability, he is now insured through the state. It was our only and last resort. So now there will be an even bigger stigma associated with him because he has state insurance. It's a vicious cycle.

One of the people on the panel that will be evaluating him for the state pre-school will be a social worker, I was thinking about talking to him/her about it. Would that be appropriate??
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Jessica
Queen of Imperfection


Joined: 20 Apr 2002
Posts: 4752
Location: Chi-town

PostPosted: Sat Dec 31, 2005 5:26 pm    Post subject: Re: Thimerosal... Reply with quote

ExCareerGal wrote:

Good luck with all the assessments. If it gets confusing and you want an outside opinion to look at test results I am pretty good at translating them to English. I think you have my email.


That would be great! Thank you.
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